The East Coast has it coming. And it might get here pretty soon – quite probably in the next couple months.

At least, that’s what researchers at Colorado State University are saying. CSU forecasters grabbed headlines in April for predicting a “well above average” hurricane season, with a 70 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the East Coast this season.

If a big storm shows up, it will be the fulfillment of many dire expectations.

Hurricanes are the root of much of the current wrangling between homeowners and property insurance companies. The hard experi-ence of the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons jacked up reinsurance costs – essentially insurance for insurance companies – and helped catastrophe modelers get a better grip on how much insurers stood to lose in the event of a major disaster.

David Vallee, hydrologist in charge of the Northeast River Forecast Center in Massachusetts, hasn’t predicted doom for New England in 2008 specifically. But he notes that we’re entering a period of warmer waters. Temperate ocean waters from the late 1930s to 1961, he says, contributed to an unusual string of strong hurricanes that struck the Northeast.

That time frame includes the “Long Island Express” hurricane that barreled through New York and Connecticut in 1938. It killed 700 people and left 63,000 homeless, causing significant damage along the Massachusetts coast and as far inland as Worcester.

Seventy years later, things are different. For starters, there’s more money at stake.

The number of single-family homes in the Northeast has tripled since 1938, and the population has doubled, according to catastrophe modeler AIR Worldwide. If that same storm hit today, AIR estimated that it would cause $35 billion in losses for insured properties. Over-all, the region would lose $100 billion in total economic losses.

But people keep building on the coast, says AIR’s Peter Dailey. The company estimates that exposure doubles every 10 years as the wealthy continue to build their increasingly expensive homes.

According to AIR’s models, Cape Cod’s distinctive gray-shingled houses are endangered. The Cape, as it juts into the ocean, is the likeliest place to see major damage.

So what would happen? Hurricanes aren’t common visitors to the Northeast, but when they come, they’re bigger and three times as fast as their cousins to the south, Vallee said.

“Our hurricanes are freight trains. They are moving at 30-40 miles per hour, and they’re up and out of here in 12 hours.”

The good news: hurricanes are far less common in the Northeast, and Vallee says a Category 5 hurricane hitting the shores of the Cape is virtually impossible. A Category 4 storm striking the Northeast is possible but extremely unlikely. But don’t relax just yet – a Category 3 hurricane should be more than enough to make New England nervous.

“I’m not worried about an apocalypse with the Category 4 or 5,” he said. “I’m worried about the Category 3.”