The chips may be down for the economy right now, both here in Boston and across the country.
But some key players apparently haven’t lost faith in the Hub’s future.
While almost everything else was down in 2008, there was one thing that actually rose around here besides the jobless and foreclosure rates – plans for new projects.
A mix of developers and major universities and hospitals submitted proposals over the past year for 54 new projects, the Boston Redevelopment Authority reports.
That’s a 25 percent increase over 2007, which, with 41 new projects filed, was not exactly a slacker year either by any stretch.
That says to me that however dour things might seem, there is long-term confidence among key stakeholders in Boston as a place to invest and build in.
Anyone filing plans now at City Hall is not looking to build in this market – remember it can take years to get city approval – but at the start of the next upswing.
“Obviously that’s positive,” said John Palmieri, head of the Boston Redevelopment Authority. “People don’t kick tires when they submit notices to us. They are serious developers who are expressing interest in doing projects, maybe not next year, but the year after.”
So who is out there crafting all those big plans?
Well it’s an interesting, and typically Boston mix, of big institutions and private developers.
Boston College, Suffolk University, Tufts University and Children’s Hospital all filed sweeping master plans with City Hall outlining several years worth of new development and growth, among a number institutions who submitted proposals.
And there are private developers like John Rosenthal and John Hynes, both of whom unveiled proposals for ambitious projects that will someday reshape, respectively, the area around Fenway Park and South Boston’s waterfront.
And that doesn’t count the slew of heavy-hitters bidding for the rights to build over a trio of air-rights parcels in the Back Bay near the Hynes convention center. No plans have been filed there yet, but you can rest assured they are coming.
Still, all these big bets on the future contrasts sharply with what is happening right now in Boston.
Construction on existing projects has all but ground to a halt. Just ask John Hynes how work is going on his grand redevelopment of the Filene’s complex in Downtown Crossing. To put it bluntly, it’s not.
But as anyone in the development business around here knows, if you want to start building a few years from now, you had better start planning now.
At the least, it involves a fairly intensive review at the Boston Redevelopment Authority, not to mention further scrutiny by state environmental regulators.
If it’s controversial, you can add in negotiations with various neighborhood and activist groups over everything from design – too much height is always a no-no – to demands for subsidies for new jobs and daycare slots.
So if you are developer or institution with big plans, it’s going to take you a year to two to run the gauntlet, if not more. If it’s a big downtown project, try five.
And then add on a year to firm up that financing package.
“As much as Boston would like to believe they are very efficient, the bottom line is that it is a very lengthy process to go through,” said David Begelfer, chief executive of NAIOP Massachusetts, which represents the local development community.
Yet, despite the moans and groans over the long approval process, there is also a healthy sense of long-term optimism around all this planning.
Vivien Li, director of the Boston Harbor Association, is also a shrewd observer of Boston’s development scene, especially the waterfront.
Her sense is developers filing plans now are getting ready to catch the start of the next upsurge, not this year, but in 2010 and 2011. While those in the real estate business know how tough it is now, they also know that it is a cyclical business as well.
“Anyone who is a developer or who has a project knows this is going to be a tough year, but if they can make it through this year and the next 18 months, things are going to get better,” Li said.
And there may be some definite advantages for developers in launching the planning and approval process now, in the midst of a downturn, instead of waiting for the next boom.
NAIOP’s Begelfer said, if he had to choose, he would rather start now rather than wait for the next boom.
During boom-times, city and town officials are overwhelmed with development plans and construction activity. There’s an embarrassment of riches and people become picky about all sorts of design issues and height.
But in a downturn, local officials are concerned about preserving jobs and their community’s tax base.
Let’s just say there can be an attitude shift that can work well for a developer with big plans.
In fact, Begelfer predicts Boston will see even more filings in 2009 by developers than it saw in 2008.
“It’s absolutely the best time to plan during a downturn,” he said.