When assessing the future of commercial real estate, there is perhaps no greater barometer than the architectural industry, but as economic raindrops begin to fall on the local landscape, the forecast remains decidedly mixed from the design community.
Whereas certain firms are reporting a significant slowdown in activity, some of which has resulted in layoffs, the overall tenor does not yet appear to be one of panic. Indeed, certain architectural operations have even continued to hire new staff, including Boston-based CBT/Childs Bertman Tseckares, which has been busy on both new construction and interior assignments, according to principal Janice Mones.
“We haven’t been hurt at all,” Mones said last week. “We’re as busy as we’ve ever been.”
The same is true at Miller Dyer Spears, a mid-sized Boston firm that has hired eight new staffers in the past six months alone. Principal Myron Miller said his company’s focus on academic and medical architecture has been one reason, with those areas continuing to flourish even as commercial work begins to dry up.
Still, while MDS is busy with projects throughout New England, Miller said there are disturbing indications that the boom market has passed its peak, especially in the technology arena. He would not identify firms, but Miller said he is aware of some companies recently that have been forced to lay off employees, fomenting a sense of uneasiness throughout the profession.
“I think people acknowledge they are concerned,” Miller said. “They know it is not as secure as the last three or four years have been.”
Among the industry leaders who have been impacted is ADD Inc. of Cambridge, a firm that was especially active in designing high-tech facilities for such companies as Cisco Systems, EMC Corp. and Sun Microsystems. President Wilson Pollack said last week that he expects revenues will be off by 10 percent in 2001, with more than 1 million square feet of potential projects now languishing on the drawing boards. A four-building expansion at Sun’s Burlington campus, for example, has been put on hold.
“We were projecting growth, and now we are not projecting growth,” Pollack said, adding that the 200-member firm has already laid off some workers, with additional action possible if conditions deteriorate further.
“We’re hoping it is just a hiccup, but there is a great hesitancy [among clients] right now,” Pollack said. That stagnation is a far cry from the euphoria felt just 12 months ago, when record rental rates and the arrival of several large players to the market led to a flourish of new construction until the industry hit a wall in the third quarter.
Among those who believe things are not as bleak as they might seem is Richard Fitzgerald, executive director of the Boston Society of Architects. Fitzgerald said the tenor of his members’ attitudes remains positive, concluding that the dearth of business is more reflective of the time of year than anything else.
“I think most people will be cautious through the summer, and then things will pick up again,” Fitzgerald said, adding that, “The reading I’m getting is no one is fearing a recession or economic slowdown.”
Caution and Questions
Even if that is the case, however, most agree that architects are less in demand at present, at least for full-time positions. Henry Faaland, whose Consulting for Architects business places professionals on either a temporary or permanent basis, said last week that there are far more qualified candidates shopping for a home than was the case at the start of the year.
“We have seen a lot of very talented people who, for reasons beyond their control, are coming in to see us,” Faaland said. “If a firm is staffing up, it’s a lot easier now to find people.”
Faaland said there are many companies looking for help, but stressed that even those operations which remain busy are taking a conservative approach, preferring to hire staff for a particular project versus bringing them on permanently.
“Firms are now hiring a lot more cautiously,” he said. “They are not exactly sure if their clients are going to be able to commit to their projects, and they do not want to have a reputation for bringing people in and then having to lay them off.”
Companies are also taking additional steps to protect against a regional malaise. Pollack, for example, said things might be even worse for ADD Inc. if it did not have offices in San Francisco and Miami, locations which are able to use new technology such as video conferencing to share work with the Boston office. In addition, his firm last week announced new alliances with a European and an Asian architectural firm, from which they hope to garner additional assignments.
ADD Inc. is also pursuing other lines of work, including residential and biotech projects, hoping to curtail any sharp downturns. It is an exercise the company is certainly familiar with, having been decimated by the downturn of the early 1990s only to rebound quickly by expanding into new practice areas such as corporate interiors. If anything, Pollack said he believes the company is much better prepared to handle any pending difficulties.
“We’re definitely more diversified and stronger than we were back then,” he said. “I think we have made the adjustments we’ve needed to.”
Overall, Pollack said he is upbeat about the future, especially since the supply of office space is nowhere near as overstocked as it was 10 years ago. The big question, he said, is whether the downturn has reached its nadir.
“The clouds are on the horizon,” he said. “We just don’t know if they are going to stay south of us or blow through.”