Home sales across the nation are expected to increase through 2012, albeit with uneven performance, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
"If we just hold at the first quarter sales pace of 5.1 million, sales this year would rise 4 percent, but the remainder of the year looks better," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. "We expect 5.3 million existing home sales this year, up from 4.9 million in 2010, with additional gains in 2012 to about 5.6 million – that’s a sustainable level given the size of our population."
Mortgage interest rates should also rise gradually to 5.5 percent by the end of the year and average 6 percent in 2012, according to a statement.
"A huge volume of cash sales, supported by the recovery in the stock market, show that smart money is chasing real estate," Yun said. "This implies that there could be a sizeable pent-up demand if mortgages become more readily accessible for qualified buyers. The problem isn’t with interest rates, but with the continuation of unnecessarily tight credit standards that are keeping many creditworthy buyers from getting a loan despite extraordinarily low default rates over the past two years."
Housing starts are forecast to rise but remain below long-term trends, reaching 603,000 in 2011, up from 595,000 last year, and continue growing to 908,000 in 2012, according to a statement. New home sales are seen at a record low 320,000 this year, rising to 487,000 in 2012.
The median existing home price is expected to remain near $170,000 over the next two years, which would mark four consecutive years of essentially no meaningful price change, according to a statement.