To hear the pros tell it, the past few months of historically low mortgage interest rates have been booming for the mortgage industry, with swamped appraisers, lenders and originators struggling to get piles of refinances out the door.

But a look at the numbers tells a different story, one of a boom that wasn’t – or at least, wasn’t much, in comparison with historic averages.

It’s not that the past several months haven’t been busy when compared to the post-crash doldrums of the past few years. According to an analysis of data produced by The Warren Group, publisher of Banker & Tradesman, more non-purchase mortgages were recorded in Massachusetts in the third quarter of this year than any quarter since the second quarter of 2009, which was the last time interest rates dropped.

In the third quarter, lenders originated 66,861 non-purchase mortgages in Massachusetts. That’s 16 percent more than the third quarter of 2009, and 80 percent more than the third quarter of 2008. September in particular was a busy month, with 26,133 non-purchase mortgages recorded – the busiest September since 2006.

But taking a larger view produces a different story. Through September, there have been 157,623 non-purchase mortgages recorded in the state – the lowest year-to-date figure for the last decade. And when you add in purchase mortgages, the numbers look even worse. The 202,837 total originations in the first nine months of this year are not only more than 20 percent less than the 260,094 at this point in 2009, they’re below even 2008’s figure of 216,003.

New Normal

Over the past 20 years, there have been roughly 378,000 originations per year, reaching a peak in 2003 at 845,570. In 2010, if current trends continue, originations are likely to be about 30 percent below historic norms.

So if current volumes aren’t anywhere near the old normal, why is everybody so busy?

One answer is simple: The herd has been thinned. Appraiser numbers are down almost 30 percent compared to three years ago, according to Steve Sousa, executive vice president of the Massachusetts Board of Real Estate Appraisers (MBREA). And with the FHA and many large banks requiring appraisals be conducted only by certified residential appraisers, “There are fewer bodies available to do appraisals, and with these restrictions, there’s even fewer,” he said.

The restrictions also make it more difficult, not easier, for appraisers to take on trainees, according to Jonathan Asker, CEO of West Bridgewater-based North Atlantic Appraisal. Rookies must be mentored and supervised, but can’t take over assignments on their own, making it tough for existing appraisers to offload assignments. That leaves them feeling swamped even if overall volume numbers are down.

It doesn’t matter whether he’s got 36 appraisial orders coming in per day or 45, if his company can only produce 35 per day, Asker said.

“We… can only put out and work at 100 percent,” he said. “I’m still maxed out.”

The other reason the lower volume can feel heavier is because loans are taking more work to process at every stage, said Amy Tierce, president of Fairway Independent Mortgage in Needham.

“In 2003, a loan officer could have 100 loans in their pipeline. You verified income, you looked at the appraisal, and that loan file might have had only a pay stub and an appraisal and that would be it,” she said. “Today, if you don’t have blood and urine samples along with every piece of paper in somebody’s financial filing cabinet, you don’t have enough for the loan. You’re busier doing less volume, because it takes so much work to get the volume done.”

Manufactured Demand

Another reason the total volume of the “boom” has been smaller in comparison with historic averages is that a much larger percentage of loans are ineligible for refinance. A substantial percentage of homes are underwater, and given toughened and underwriting standards and economic woes, fewer people have the sterling credit required to obtain a new loan.

According to Asker, a certain volume can only be considered a boom in light of the total amount of people eligible. Given that many people who would have been eligible to refinance during previous low-rate periods aren’t eligible this time around, he feels like the current upsurge is a boom “as far as it can go.”

The dwindling pool of applicants leaves Asker wondering about the future.

“We’re gonna get through these refis, and then the question is, how long before the sales come back?” he asked.

Given the substantial number of people who have been locked out, there may be a deep well of untapped demand for refinancing in the future. But those loans may only be able to be refinanced if home prices rise and underwriting standards return to pre-bubble norms.

That might take a while.

“Because the change in market conditions is happening so slowly, until you begin to see that change, it becomes harder and harder to support higher market values,” since appraisers must rely on recent sales as their foundation for comparison when estimating value, said the MBREA’s Sousa. “From an appraisers perspective it’s a chicken and egg thing.”

Industry observers say there’s just too much uncertainty to guess whether and when the market might return to more normal historic levels. Some said they think the federal government may still have a role to play in creating demand.

“One of the things that I question is, are we going to see a continued boom manufactured by the government because they create programs to help more people refinance who are being left out,” Tierce said.