The virus that causes COVID-19 as seen through a transmission electron microscope. Photo courtesy of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
The World Health Organization says it could still take some time to get a full picture of the threat posed by omicron, a new variant of the coronavirus as scientists worldwide scramble to assess its multiple mutations.
Stock markets swooned, some public gatherings got canceled, and countries across the globe suspended incoming flights after scientists in South Africa last week identified the new version that appears to have been behind a recent spike in COVID-19 infections in the country’s most populous province.
Over the weekend, the list of countries that have spotted the new variant in travelers grew. Portugal detected 13 cases linked to the new variant among members of a single soccer club – only one of whom had recently traveled to South Africa.
On Friday, WHO designated it as a “variant of concern,” its most serious designation of a COVID-19 variant, and called it “omicron” as the latest entry into its Greek alphabet classification system designed to avoid stigmatizing countries of origin and simplify understanding.
The news helped trigger drops in stock markets Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly falling more than 1,000 points, as a new coronavirus variant first detected in South Africa appeared to be spreading across the globe. The S&P 500 index fell 2.3 percent, its worst day since February and the Nasdaq composite had its worst drop in two months. The Dow closed with a loss of 905 points. Travel and energy stocks were among the biggest losers, with Royal Caribbean dropping 13 percent, United Airlines falling more than 9 percent and Exxon losing 3.5 percent. The price of oil fell 13 percent and bond yields fell sharply.
What Do Health Officials Know?
By Sunday, U.N. health agency issued a statement on omicron that boiled down to: We don’t know much yet.
It said it wasn’t clear whether omicron is more transmissible – more easily spread between people – compared to other variants like the highly transmissible Delta variant. It said it wasn’t clear if infection with omicron causes more severe disease, even as it cited data from South Africa showing rising rates of hospitalization there – but that could just be because more people are getting infected with COVID-19, not specifically omicron.
From just over 200 new confirmed cases per day in recent weeks, South Africa saw the number of new daily cases rocket to more than 3,200 on Saturday, most in Gauteng, the country’s most populous province.
Now, up to 90 percent of the new cases in Gauteng are caused by it, according to Tulio de Oliveira, director of the KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform.
“There is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with omicron are different from those from other variants,” WHO said. It said there’s no evidence – yet – that COVID vaccines, tests and treatments are any less effective against the new version.
So far, the main difference with other variants appears to be that there may be an increased risk of reinfection with omicron – in other words, that people who’ve already had COVID-19 could get reinfected more easily.
Will Vaccines Still Work?
The variant appears to have a high number of mutations – about 30 – in the coronavirus’ spike protein, which could affect how easily it spreads to people.
Some experts say that could mean that vaccine makers may have to adapt their products at some point.
Sharon Peacock, who has led genetic sequencing of COVID-19 in Britain at the University of Cambridge, said the data so far suggest the new variant has mutations “consistent with enhanced transmissibility,” but said that “the significance of many of the mutations is still not known.”
Lawrence Young, a virologist at the University of Warwick, described omicron as “the most heavily mutated version of the virus we have seen,” including potentially worrying changes never before seen all in the same virus.
Even though some of the genetic changes in omicron appear worrying, it’s still unclear if they will pose a public health threat. Some previous variants, like the Beta variant, initially alarmed scientists but didn’t end up spreading very far.
“We don’t know if this new variant could get a toehold in regions where Delta is,” said Peacock of the University of Cambridge. “The jury is out on how well this variant will do where there are other variants circulating.”
To date, Delta is by far the most predominant form of COVID-19, accounting for more than 99 percent of sequences submitted to the world’s biggest public database.
Is It More Transmissable?
Scientists know that omicron is genetically distinct from previous variants including the Beta and Delta variants, but don’t know if these genetic changes make it any more transmissible or dangerous. So far, there is no indication the variant causes more severe disease.
It will likely take weeks to sort out if omicron is more infectious and if vaccines are still effective against it.
Peter Openshaw, a professor of experimental medicine at Imperial College London said it was “extremely unlikely” that current vaccines wouldn’t work, noting they are effective against numerous other variants.
Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health in the United States, emphasized that there is no data yet that suggests the new variant causes more serious illness than previous COVID-19 variants.
“I do think it’s more contagious when you look at how rapidly it spread through multiple districts in South Africa. It has the earmarks therefore of being particularly likely to spread from one person to another. … What we don’t know is whether it can compete with Delta,” Collins said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
Collins echoed several experts in saying the news should make everyone redouble their efforts to use the tools the world already has, including vaccinations, booster shots and measures such as mask-wearing.
AP staff writers Maria Cheng, Mike Corder, Geir Moulson and Jeffrey Collins contrinbuted reporting.
