Have you seen those self-driving test cars making their way through the tangled streets of Boston? They’re going to ruin your life.
Well, probably not your life; if anything the middle and upper class stand to gain considerably from mainstream acceptance of autonomous mobility as a service. MaaS will redefine how we live and where we work, but it won’t erase jobs in commercial development, real estate and financing. If anything it will create openings for innovative solutions to new problems. At worst you might need to find a new use for your suburban two-car garage. (May we suggest accessory dwelling units?)
But a lot of people are going to be out of work when these futuristic vehicles dominate the roadways. Every secondary provider of automobile services, from dealerships to autobody shops to gas stations – gone. Every car insurance and rental company – gone. Parking and traffic enforcement officials, attorneys who deal with traffic violations and auto accidents, long-haul truck drivers, Lyft and Uber drivers – all gone.
In addition to the impact of all those job losses, major economic changes will follow the fleets of autonomous electric vehicles. Millions of dollars in revenue from parking tickets, speeding tickets and gas taxes will disappear. Depending on the expense of the services, road trips could become a thing of the past, putting roadside diners, tourist attractions and highway service centers out of business.
Land uses will change drastically. The fleets could be housed in urban garages, suburban structures or a combination of the two, and the savvy entrepreneur is looking ahead to that eventuality.
The impact on the housing market is less clear. With the ability to be productive during a lengthy commute, workers can live farther away from job hubs than ever before. Public transit will be completely overwhelmed if the services are prohibitively expensive for long commutes. Without the square footage of a garage, housing could shrink to fit on smaller lots throughout the region.
MaaS will be incredibly disruptive, but as disruptions do, it will also create new opportunities for positive outcomes. Engineers and urban planners are going to be in high demand as the fleets ramp up and the cities deal with the changes.
It also creates huge opportunities for Gateway Cities if the Millennial preference for city living continues unabated. Mills made over into lofts and apartments are very popular housing options, but not necessarily in the places they are currently located. The freedom to travel without a personal vehicle or a transit connection opens a lot of smaller city doors to these younger workers.
Technology is like a runaway snowball; all it needs is a little push and off it goes down the hill, collecting mass and momentum, until it is unstoppable and smashing everything in its path.
Significant technological developments like the combustion engine, television and the smartphone reshape society in ways both drastic and immediate and subtle and ongoing. Those changes are not always for the better. Shared autonomous vehicles are coming, and we had all better get ready.
