While the economy may escape a double dip, the recovery will continue to be lackluster and fitful, a State Street economist said.

Speaking at a presentation to journalists at State Street’s Boston offices, Chris Probyn, managing director and chief economist for State Street Global Advisors, described the general path from recession to recovery as a relay race.

Probyn said while the first two legs of government stimulus and a rise in inventories had successfully been run, the third leg of the race – an increase in consumer spending -had faltered. A hit to households net worth (in the form of declines in the value of their homes and investments) is inspiring people to save more, putting a cap on growth.

Despite the sluggishness, he said he does not fear a double dip.

"You have to take the threat of a double dip seriously. If you’re growing at 4 [percent] to 5 percent, you can take a hit to the economy [and be OK]. When you’re growing [as] in the last quarter, by 1.4 percent, you can’t take many hits. So I would take the possibility of a double-dip seriously but I wouldn’t give it more than a 20 [percent] to 25 percent chance," said Probyn, though a further decline in home prices would make a double dip more likely.

While the Fed has not entirely spent its arsenal, Probyn described the options left to it to goose the markets as "swords and sticks" compared to the heavy-duty weaponry the bank was able to deploy to initially combat the financial crisis. That suggests a "steady grind" upward in stock prices and economic growth, but little help on the jobs front and a flatlined housing market.