An illustration of the new coronavirus that causes the disease COVID-19. Image courtesy of the Centers for Disease Control.
Massachusetts is now the only New England state with a COVID-19 transmission rate that indicates rapid spread of the coronavirus, according to a website that has been compiling state data and tracking transmission trends.
The current Rt, or rate of transmission, for the coronavirus in Massachusetts — a measure of a virus’s average transmission rate at a given point in time – is estimated at 1.01, according to the website Rt.live. The Rt value is essentially the number of people that one infected person transmits the virus to.
“The way you really get in trouble with this virus is the reproduction rate – you know, how fast does one person become two, become four, becomes eight, becomes 16, becomes 32 and the like,” Gov. Charlie Baker said last month.
Over the last few weeks, public officials in Massachusetts have taken a measure of pride from the fact that the Bay State once had the lowest COVID-19 transmission rate of any state in the country. But since hitting the low end of the scale around June 22, the transmission rate of the virus in Massachusetts has been steadily inching upwards. Connecticut has the lowest transmission rate in the country, estimated at 0.85. Maine, at 0.89, is second-lowest, followed by Rhode Island at 0.91, Washington, D.C. at 0.92, New Hampshire at 0.94, Arkansas at 0.97, North Carolina at 0.98, and Vermont at 0.99. Every other state in the country, now including Massachusetts, has an Rt above 1.00.
Two of the COVID-19 metrics that Baker and his administration track most closely also started trending in the wrong direction Thursday. The three-day averages of the number of COVID-19 deaths and the number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 in Massachusetts are on the rise, with the average number of deaths climbing from 17 as of July 5 to 19 as of July 6, and the average number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients rising from 629 as of July 7 to 639 as of July 8, the Department of Public Health said. DPH’s daily report Thursday added 177 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 to the state’s total and 25 additional deaths to the virus’s death toll here.
Boston on Wednesday recorded the most new confirmed infections in a day since early June but city public health officials do not believe a concerning trend is emerging, Mayor Marty Walsh said Thursday. The city’s public health dashboard reported 46 new cases, only the third time in the past month that the daily increase surpassed 40. While it did not significantly outstrip any records or indicate proof of a worrying increase, the 46 new cases were the highest one-day total since the 55 reported on June 5.
“This isn’t a trend, it’s not to scare people, but it’s the highest day we’ve had in a month,” Walsh said during a virtual appearance hosted by the New England Council. “We’re monitoring those situations and we’re doing tracing to find out where those cases came from.”
The mayor praised Boston’s emphasis on a slow and gradual reopening process, drawing a contrast with many other states where cases are rapidly increasing.
“There was a lot of pressure here in Boston and Massachusetts to reopen, and I’m grateful we didn’t because we’re seeing surges in positive cases, people shutting down their economies, states shutting down their economies, hospitals and ICU capacities are being pushed to the limit, putting people’s lives at stake,” he said. “We don’t want to put the economy ahead of people’s lives, so we’re going to continue to take precautions as we took from the beginning. The data keeps trending in the right direction, except yesterday was a little high, but this is still heading in the right direction.”
Since Feb. 1, Massachusetts has had 105,138 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and at least 8,053 people have died of the virus since mid-March. Though the three-day average number of hospitalized patients increased in Thursday’s report, the number of COVID-19 patients in a Massachusetts hospital as of midday Thursday was 635, down by 27 from midday Wednesday.
