In case you hadn’t heard, the recession is over, folks. Done. Behind us. A distant and uncomfortable memory.
What, no parade?
The official announcement of our most recent recession’s end came from National Bureau of Economic Research, the private institution that’s also apparently the arbiter of all things recession-related. In fact, not only has the recession ended, it’s been over for more than a year.
News of the recession’s official end was greeted with little fanfare and much skepticism. A headline reading “Recession over!” and played like “Man Walks On Moon!” never materialized. Instead, the news was akin to kissing your sister or winning first place in a castor oil swallowing contest.
We don’t mean to diminish the importance of the fact that our great national economy, the once and future driver of the world’s wealth, is no longer receding. But a lack of recession thus far hasn’t been replaced by a resumption of growth, and that rightly causes grave concern.
As the economic tide receded, it laid bare on the shore all that it had dragged forth. Cripplingly high unemployment. Frozen credit markets. Once-mighty corporations now stuck on the government’s dole. Foreclosures. Millions upon millions of foreclosures.
Now that tide is slack. Flat. Gathering momentum, we hope, to rise and flood the shores again.
And while it’s true a rising tide does lift all boats, it’s also true that that which was laid bare first in a receding tide is last to be flooded again when the tide comes back in.
Even as corporate profits start to turn a corner, consumers are still struggling, scrimping and saving.
Last month, nationwide housing starts reached a four-month high, an encouraging news tidbit diminished when one recalls that the prior four months were abysmal, and further tempered by news of record-breaking foreclosures here at home. And we’re not holding our breath in anticipation of last month’s housing sales numbers.
We are all still hurting, bruised and battered after a costly economic broadside that took huge swallows out of savings and nest eggs. It takes a substantial amount of time to recover from injuires like these.
And while we have faith we will recover suffuciently, we can’t escape the nagging feeling that we may never reach the level of “health” attained in the heady pre-recession years.
It seems increasingly obvious that the high water mark reached during those freewheeling times was not set through normal circumstances, but was rather a once in a generation flood tide, driven by the high winds of callous risk-taking and greed and a full moon of easy government money.
Yes, the recovery will advance. Wounds will be healed.
But we fear too much of the damage will remain, a flood of foreclosed homes and broken dreams driven high onto our shores, then left to bleach in the sun.
So please excuse our lack of enthusiasm. We think our time is better spent learning the lessons of the past few years, and applying them to both save those that still can be saved, and ensuring future victims have sufficient foundations to withstand another flood.
