Consumer finance website WalletHub has released its eight financial predictions for 2018 and it contains a mixed bag for consumers. The site provided a taste of what the personal finance website saw in its crystal ball.
U.S. GDP growth will remain near 2.5 percent. The U.S. economy gained steam throughout 2017, with GDP growth rising from 1.6 percent in 2016 to a projected 2.5 percent this year, according to the Federal Reserve. And economic expansion is expected to continue through 2018. But how high we fly largely depends on the fate of Congressional tax reform efforts.
Unemployment will crack 4 percent. The national unemployment rate is at its lowest point in 17 years. But the Federal Reserve projects a 3.9 percent rate in 2018. That also seems to be the general consensus among investment banks and the economists WalletHub surveyed.
“The unemployment rate will be below 4 percent at the end of 2018, perhaps as low as 3.5 percent,” Robert J. Gordon, the Stanley G. Harris Professor of Social Sciences at Northwestern University, said in a statement. “This would mean the lowest unemployment rate since 1968-69.”
The S&P 500 will top 2,900 and finish at 2,838. We’re in the midst of a record bull market, with stocks posting gains for eight straight years (including 2017) and major indices breaking record after record. At 2,676 as of Dec. 15, the S&P 500 is up 19.5 percent year to date and at an all-time high. So barring some big unforeseen downside surprise, the S&P will end 2017 with its biggest gain since 2013 – more than doubling the historical annual average.
The Fed will raise rates three times, costing borrowers billions. “My best guess is for three rate hikes to take the target band to 2-2.25 percent,” Paul J. Shea, assistant professor of economics at Bates College, said in a statement. “This matches the FOMC’s current forecast, [and] they are the ones making the decision.”
Existing home sales will again top 5 million, despite higher mortgage interest rates. “Home sales can be expected to continue to rise in many markets that have yet to recover from the crash a decade back,” Oscar Brookins, an associate professor of economics at Northeastern University, said in a statement. “Those markets that have already recovered (primarily the coastal markets) will probably continue growth and attenuate the existent gap between themselves.”
