Inflation is the big story in the American economy right now, but experts have been divided on its ultimate impact on the housing market.
Now, a new survey from Redfin suggests more than a quarter of prospective homebuyers nationwide are putting off their search due to rising prices.
Real estate has historically been a good bet when consumer prices are going up quickly, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the national Association of Realtors.
“One aspect of inflation is that real estate has proven to be a good hedge. In the 1970s, a high inflationary period when CPI averaged 7.1 percent per year, home price gains outpaced inflation with a 9.9 percent gain. Even when interest rates soared in the 1980s and thereby crushed home sales, home prices still held up to consumer price inflation: 5.5 percent versus 5.6 percent. That’s because rents were soaring. Other decades also show similar patterns,” he said in a statement reacting to the latest inflation report issued by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics on Dec. 10.
This year, multifamily rents grew through the fall according to commercial real estate data firm Yardi Matrix, driven partly by in influx of demand from stymied homebuyers, before decelerating in November. At the same time, housing markets across the nation have been unusually active for the fall and winter months, as other stymied buyers take advantage of growing inventory and look to lock in historically low mortgage rates before the Federal Reserve’s promised increases hit next year.
But Redfin’s survey of 1,500 prospective homebuyers and sellers nationwide, conducted by research firm Lucid from Dec. 10 to Dec. 13, showed that neither history nor rising rents were powerful enough to sway some buyers: 29 percent said they were delaying their plans due to inflation, while 24 percent said they were moving up their plans and 11 percent said they were cancelling them.
“Some people may delay buying because they’re worried that with prices rising on everything from food to fuel, now is not the right time to make a huge purchase. But others might move faster to find a house because they’re worried home prices and rent prices will increase even more, and they want to lock in a fixed payment,” Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather said in a statement announcing the survey’s release.
Realtor.com economic research manager George Ratiu suggested that rising prices for consumer goods could make buyer keep a tighter hold on their purse strings next year.
“The combination of rising inflation and the Federal Reserve’s accelerated tapering of mortgage-backed securities purchases is expected to push interest rates higher in 2022, trimming many buyers’ budgets,” he wrote last week.
November’s national pending home sales statistics, released by the National Association of Realtors this morning, suggest the Redfin poll could be on to something. NAR’s index of pending sales, based on contract signings, fell 2.2 percent in November. Year-over-year, signings slid 2.7 percent.
“There was less pending home sales action this time around, which I would ascribe to low housing supply, but also to buyers being hesitant about home prices,” Yun said in a statement accompanying the pending sales report. “While I expect neither a price reduction, nor another year of record-pace price gains, the market will see more inventory in 2022 and that will help some consumers with affordability.”
The Redfin survey contains one hopeful note for buyers. Only 20 percent of sellers said their decision to sell was impacted at all by rising inflation, with only 10 percent saying it would make them either cancel or delay their plans to sell.